--- name: stock-fundamental-analysis description: Analyze listed companies using stock fundamental analysis. Use when evaluating stocks, earnings reports, financial statements, valuation, moat, growth, profitability, cash flow, balance sheet strength, shareholder returns, risks, and investment thesis. Helps produce structured buy/watch/avoid style research notes without giving personalized financial advice.

Stock Fundamental Analysis

Use this skill to produce disciplined, evidence-based fundamental analysis for public companies.

Core Rules

• Do not provide personalized financial advice or guaranteed predictions.
• Always separate facts, assumptions, and opinion.
• Prefer primary sources: 10-K, 10-Q, annual reports, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts, and official guidance.
• Use recent market data only after checking live sources when available.
• If data is missing or stale, say so clearly.
• Never rely on one metric. Combine business quality, financial quality, valuation, and risk.

Default Workflow

1. Clarify scope if needed
2. Ticker / company / market
3. Time horizon: short-term event, 1-3 year view, long-term compounder

4. Output depth: quick scan, full report, comparison, valuation only

5. Company snapshot

6. Business model and revenue drivers
7. Segments / geography / customer concentration
8. Industry position and competitors

9. Key growth catalysts

10. Financial statement review

11. Revenue growth and quality
12. Gross margin, operating margin, net margin trends
13. Free cash flow and cash conversion
14. Debt, liquidity, dilution, working capital

15. ROIC / ROE / asset efficiency when relevant

16. Business quality assessment

17. Moat: brand, switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, regulation, distribution
18. Pricing power
19. Recurring revenue / repeat purchase behavior
20. Cyclicality and operating leverage

21. Management quality and capital allocation

22. Valuation

23. Use multiple methods where possible:
    • P/E, forward P/E
    • EV/EBITDA
    • EV/Sales for high-growth or early-profit companies
    • Price/FCF
    • DCF / owner earnings when useful
24. Compare to:
    • Own history
    • Peer group
    • Growth, margin, and risk profile

25. State whether valuation looks cheap, fair, expensive, or unclear.

26. Risks and red flags

27. Competitive pressure
28. Margin compression
29. Customer concentration
30. Debt refinancing
31. Regulatory / legal issues
32. Dilution / stock-based compensation
33. Accounting quality concerns

34. Macro, FX, commodity, and rate sensitivity

35. Conclusion

36. Bull case
37. Base case
38. Bear case

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39. Key metrics to monitor
40. Final view: attractive / watchlist / avoid / insufficient data

Output Templates

Quick Fundamental Scan

# [Ticker] Fundamental Scan

## One-line view
[Concise conclusion]

## Business
- What it does:
- Revenue drivers:
- Competitive position:

## Financial quality
- Growth:
- Margins:
- Cash flow:
- Balance sheet:

## Valuation
- Current multiples:
- Peer / history comparison:
- Valuation view:

## Key risks
- 

## What to watch next
- 

## Bottom line
[Attractive / Watchlist / Avoid / Insufficient data]

Full Research Note

# [Company] ([Ticker]) Fundamental Analysis

## Executive Summary
- Rating-style view:
- Time horizon:
- Core thesis:
- Main uncertainty:

## Business Overview

## Industry and Competitive Position

## Financial Analysis
### Revenue
### Margins
### Cash Flow
### Balance Sheet
### Returns on Capital

## Management and Capital Allocation

## Valuation
### Multiple-based valuation
### DCF / owner earnings view, if useful
### Peer comparison

## Scenario Analysis
| Case | Key assumptions | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | | |
| Base | | |
| Bear | | |

## Risks

## Monitoring Checklist

## Final View

Scoring Framework

Use a 0-5 score for each dimension when the user wants a rating.

Final score is not a buy signal. Explain the judgment behind each score.

When More Detail Is Needed

Read references/metrics.md for metric definitions and interpretation. Read references/red-flags.md when checking accounting quality or risk signals. Read references/valuation.md when building a more detailed valuation section.

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